Monday, July 17, 2006

When Scientists Lie

So there is a problem out there. That problem is people subverting events to support their own arguments. One of the researchers here at the Centre of Excellence Dr Andrew Baird has been writing Articles on the impact of the Asian Tsunami. His conclusions have been that the Tsunami does relatively little damage to the reef. In the end the damage to the reef from the Tsunami is equivalent to a Storm not even a Cyclone. That is fine and his Data shows what he says. What seems to be happening and what has been keeping Andrew busy is the proliferation of papers on the usefulness of Mangroves in mitigating the effect of a Tsunami on the devastation that is unleashed upon the land. The argument of these people is that it's is simple thermodynamics, the mangroves will create drag and slow the insweeping tide of water. And this is true it will to some degree slow the water. However hiding behind mangrove will protect you from the detonation of a Nuclear Weapon as much as from a Tsunami. A Tsunami would have a great deal more Energy than a single nuclear bomb ( yes even the largest of them look at the Wikipedia article and how it changed hundres of kilometers of coastline), so a few puny mangroves will not stop it totally wiping your village off the face of the earth. I mean the Maldives didn't stop the wave from hitting the East coast of Madagascar.


This is a before and after image of a Village in Aceh taken from the same spot.
"Mangroves are good things why shouldn't people promote the replanting of mangroves and use popular (if a bit incorect) arguments to promote the need for mangrove" I hear you say. Well I agree Mangroves are good things and there are many reasons to have them from Coastal erosion to fish nurserys, but if you tell people that they will be safe if you plant a few mangroves in front of there village and another Tsunami comes along. The people that are left after the Disaster, will then not believe you about the usefulness of Mangroves and will replace them with a series of cement walls to keep the water out. They will be much less likely to listen in the future when scientist say that we need to keep some habitat for whatever reason even when it's legitamate and urgent.
The thing is most peope will see the usefullness of mangrove and will support the conservation of mangroves for legitmate reasons. There is no need to use rediculas (that will be counter productive in the end) reasons such as protecting you from Tsunamis to sell people on the idea of protecting mangroves.

OK I'm done ranting now, but if anyone wants to read the Papers that i linked to above about the impact on the Acehanise reefs and the usefulness of Mangroves please email me and i will send you a copy.

1 comment:

dbquijano said...

interesting stuff. i didn't know mangroves debate regarding tsunamis. i wouldnt feel comfortable hiding behind mangroves...