Well I have never claimed to be the worlds greatest writer. In fact I can lay claim to being well into the lower half of writers on a best to worst scale. I do try though and I feel (hope) that I am getting better as time goes by.
Australia's current Chief Scientist Professor Penny D Sackett began her appointment as Chief Scientist for Australia in November 2008. She is an accomplished cross-disciplinary scientist with a record of academic excellence on three continents. She also obviously spends some time crafting her words and can really punch out a nice paragraph or two. Her recent article on her website so eloquently states the dangers involved in climate change and the problems facing the world and Australia that I had to link to it.
So with out further adieu:
Why we must act now to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
Friday, November 27, 2009
Wednesday, November 25, 2009
Rate of Change
So a bit of an update on the state of climate change and how things are going. By all reports that I've seen or heard we are tracking quite nicely along the worst case scenarios from the IPCC report. I would love to see actual evidence that can show that Climate Change is not happening and that all the ice on the planet is slowly disappearing for other reasons, but I haven't seen any real evidence. All the "sceptics" I've seen rely on denigration and opinion.
There is also now evidence to demonstrate a declining calcification rate for corals over the last 20 years most likely due to Ocean acidification. This is startling evidence to show the Climate change could wipe corals out. Corals may be able to adapt to Bleaching and survive hotter temperatures but I fail to see how they can adapt to Ocean acidification. It's a chemical process that means there is less and less Calcium available to make skeleton and if pH drops too much will dissolve the skeleton of corals.
Below is a report from the ABC on evidence for climate change and us following the worst case scenario from the IPCC report. Next post hopefully I'll be looking at my personal carbon budget and how to improve.
Climate changing faster than expected: scientists
By environment reporter Sarah Clarke for AM
It has been two years since the landmark Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report gave its most recent assessment on the state of the planet's changing climate.
Now, 26 international scientists have collated the most recent data and observations, and they have found that climate change is accelerating beyond expectations.
Most of the 26 scientists are authors of reports published by the IPCC. They have updated the panel's latest scientific projections and their observations show an acceleration of change.
According to their research, the Arctic may be ice-free by the summer of 2030 and sea levels could reach the upper limit of 2 metres by the turn of the century.
Professor Matthew England from the University of New South Wales is a contributing author to the report and he says things are changing rapidly.
"Over the last few years, some of those indicators have accelerated, some are right where the IPCC forecast, but the mix of all of the indicators tells us that, if anything, the IPCC projections were slightly conservative," he said.
"[They were] absolutely on the money for some metrics, but for things like Arctic sea ice, the system there has changed much more rapidly than any scientists envisaged."
According to the scientists' observations, sea levels have risen more than five centimetres over the past 15 years - about 80 per cent higher than IPCC projections made in 2001.
And the Arctic sea ice melt over the last two years was about 40 per cent greater than the last forecast.
Ice-free Arctic summer
Professor England says the observed rate of summer ice melt is now running faster than any climate model can predict.
"The Arctic sea ice was thought to be something we saw that we would continue to see during summer time right through to the end of this century, and possibly even beyond," he said.
"At the moment we may have an Arctic that is ice-free in summer as early as about 2030 and that really is bringing forward that ice melt much closer to now than we had previously thought."
With that in mind, the scientists say global emissions must peak then decline rapidly within a decade if the worst of climate change is to be avoided.
And the researchers says global warming could reach as high as 7 degrees Celsius by the turn of the century if emissions are not curbed.
While some might question the doom and gloom observations, Will Steffen from the Australian National University has welcomed the update and he has called on scientific critics to put forward their work.
"There will be those who say, 'Well this is just more doom and gloom' and so on, but you have to ask, do those people come from the main credible scientific community?" he said.
"There are a lot of people who are scientists but are they part of the credible, reputable climate change science community?
"And second of all, if they dispute this, have they taken their evidence and published it in the peer-reviewed literature, in the prominent journals? And the answer is no, you can't find it there."
There is also now evidence to demonstrate a declining calcification rate for corals over the last 20 years most likely due to Ocean acidification. This is startling evidence to show the Climate change could wipe corals out. Corals may be able to adapt to Bleaching and survive hotter temperatures but I fail to see how they can adapt to Ocean acidification. It's a chemical process that means there is less and less Calcium available to make skeleton and if pH drops too much will dissolve the skeleton of corals.
Below is a report from the ABC on evidence for climate change and us following the worst case scenario from the IPCC report. Next post hopefully I'll be looking at my personal carbon budget and how to improve.
Climate changing faster than expected: scientists
By environment reporter Sarah Clarke for AM
It has been two years since the landmark Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report gave its most recent assessment on the state of the planet's changing climate.
Now, 26 international scientists have collated the most recent data and observations, and they have found that climate change is accelerating beyond expectations.
Most of the 26 scientists are authors of reports published by the IPCC. They have updated the panel's latest scientific projections and their observations show an acceleration of change.
According to their research, the Arctic may be ice-free by the summer of 2030 and sea levels could reach the upper limit of 2 metres by the turn of the century.
Professor Matthew England from the University of New South Wales is a contributing author to the report and he says things are changing rapidly.
"Over the last few years, some of those indicators have accelerated, some are right where the IPCC forecast, but the mix of all of the indicators tells us that, if anything, the IPCC projections were slightly conservative," he said.
"[They were] absolutely on the money for some metrics, but for things like Arctic sea ice, the system there has changed much more rapidly than any scientists envisaged."
According to the scientists' observations, sea levels have risen more than five centimetres over the past 15 years - about 80 per cent higher than IPCC projections made in 2001.
And the Arctic sea ice melt over the last two years was about 40 per cent greater than the last forecast.
Ice-free Arctic summer
Professor England says the observed rate of summer ice melt is now running faster than any climate model can predict.
"The Arctic sea ice was thought to be something we saw that we would continue to see during summer time right through to the end of this century, and possibly even beyond," he said.
"At the moment we may have an Arctic that is ice-free in summer as early as about 2030 and that really is bringing forward that ice melt much closer to now than we had previously thought."
With that in mind, the scientists say global emissions must peak then decline rapidly within a decade if the worst of climate change is to be avoided.
And the researchers says global warming could reach as high as 7 degrees Celsius by the turn of the century if emissions are not curbed.
While some might question the doom and gloom observations, Will Steffen from the Australian National University has welcomed the update and he has called on scientific critics to put forward their work.
"There will be those who say, 'Well this is just more doom and gloom' and so on, but you have to ask, do those people come from the main credible scientific community?" he said.
"There are a lot of people who are scientists but are they part of the credible, reputable climate change science community?
"And second of all, if they dispute this, have they taken their evidence and published it in the peer-reviewed literature, in the prominent journals? And the answer is no, you can't find it there."
Friday, November 20, 2009
CO2 Emissions
There is allot Talk about Climate Change and problems associated with it. There is not allot of talk about solutions that everyday people can use. The other problem is that the debate has been dehumanised. What I mean by this statement is that the everyday discussion revolves around different countries emissions and global emissions. People don't associate with this. Each countries emissions need to be dealt with by the government of that country. Global emissions are dealt with at big conferences Like Kyoto or the up coming Copenhagen global climate summit. I thought 'Why not change this, bring it home how much each and every person has to do'.
The first question though is how to do this. Well it's a global scale problem so we had better start with global emissions. Boring I know and has nothing to do with you right. Wrong! It has everything to do with you, just wait and see. The world population is 6 692 030 277 (see map below for a truly frightening look at global population).
Population, total - 2008
Another look at world population
The Global CO2 emissions are 4.5 metric tons per person for 2005 and the world population in 2005 was 6 462 054 420 (see above population link). This means that total global CO2 emissions are 29 079 244 890 metric Tons as of 2005. If you look at http://siteresources.worldbank.org/DATASTATISTICS/Resources/wdi09introch3.pdf you will see that the 29 billion ton is a pretty accurate estimate for todays CO2 emissions as well. I want to be generous here so lets just say 30 billion tons of CO2 went into the Atmosphere in 2009 purely because of humans driving cars heat/cooling and generally trying to get machines to do things for us.
What do we do with these numbers. Nothing at the moment looks much like it pertains to the average person. Well no not yet, but bare with me. Many scientists and climate modellers are recommending a minimum 25% cut from 2005 levels by 2025. Lets be a little generous here as well, we don't just want to do the bare minimum, so lets commit to a 30% reduction. That means by 2025 the global emissions should be down around 20 355 471 423 or 20 billion metric tons of CO2 annually.
So divide the global emission target by current population and you get 3.041 or 3 tons per person annually. Here is where it finally becomes personal. Are you good enough to drop your emissions to 3 tons per person per year. Australians currently use 20.5 tons per person per year. Your goal is to drop your usage to 3.
This gives everyone the same problem that many are having with food, so much information available and no real meaning until you get to relate these numbers to your life, what your doing and how it will affect you. Well on this Page is a guide to energy usage throughout the home and there is a Carbon emission calculator. This is a good start in linking these numbers to your daily life. Also a energy monitor that tells you how much power your using at any one time will help you keep a track of your power usage and connect you more to what your emissions are.
Over the next few posts I'll be exploring my own Greenhouse emissions and looking at what I can do to reduce them, So hopefully you'll be back to get some pointers on how to make your own reductions.
The first question though is how to do this. Well it's a global scale problem so we had better start with global emissions. Boring I know and has nothing to do with you right. Wrong! It has everything to do with you, just wait and see. The world population is 6 692 030 277 (see map below for a truly frightening look at global population).
Population, total - 2008
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Source: World Bank Data - Total populationAnother look at world population
The Global CO2 emissions are 4.5 metric tons per person for 2005 and the world population in 2005 was 6 462 054 420 (see above population link). This means that total global CO2 emissions are 29 079 244 890 metric Tons as of 2005. If you look at http://siteresources.worldbank.org/DATASTATISTICS/Resources/wdi09introch3.pdf you will see that the 29 billion ton is a pretty accurate estimate for todays CO2 emissions as well. I want to be generous here so lets just say 30 billion tons of CO2 went into the Atmosphere in 2009 purely because of humans driving cars heat/cooling and generally trying to get machines to do things for us.
What do we do with these numbers. Nothing at the moment looks much like it pertains to the average person. Well no not yet, but bare with me. Many scientists and climate modellers are recommending a minimum 25% cut from 2005 levels by 2025. Lets be a little generous here as well, we don't just want to do the bare minimum, so lets commit to a 30% reduction. That means by 2025 the global emissions should be down around 20 355 471 423 or 20 billion metric tons of CO2 annually.
So divide the global emission target by current population and you get 3.041 or 3 tons per person annually. Here is where it finally becomes personal. Are you good enough to drop your emissions to 3 tons per person per year. Australians currently use 20.5 tons per person per year. Your goal is to drop your usage to 3.
This gives everyone the same problem that many are having with food, so much information available and no real meaning until you get to relate these numbers to your life, what your doing and how it will affect you. Well on this Page is a guide to energy usage throughout the home and there is a Carbon emission calculator. This is a good start in linking these numbers to your daily life. Also a energy monitor that tells you how much power your using at any one time will help you keep a track of your power usage and connect you more to what your emissions are.
Over the next few posts I'll be exploring my own Greenhouse emissions and looking at what I can do to reduce them, So hopefully you'll be back to get some pointers on how to make your own reductions.
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