New Ideas

Weather you believe in it or not most people seem to think that climate change is a new idea. The problem is it is not a new idea. It was in 1896 a Swedish scientist (Svante Arrhenius) published a new idea. As humanity burned fossil fuels such as coal, which added carbon dioxide gas to the Earth's atmosphere, we would raise the planet's average temperature. This "greenhouse effect" was only one of many speculations about climate change. Scientists found technical reasons to argue that our emissions could not change the climate. Indeed most thought it was obvious that puny humanity could never affect the vast climate cycles, which were governed by a benign "balance of nature." In any case major change seemed impossible except over tens of thousands of years.

The way that the scientific community works, someone comes up with a theory, gathers evidence and then publishes a study says that his/her new theory could explain some part of the world. Then most other scientists rubbish the theory and try and disprove it. To disprove it they need to either gather data that says the original result was out for some reason or they have to point out a flaw in the methods. Once this happens either the original theory is revised or if completely off is thrown out. The important point here is that you must have evidence to back up your statements/theorems. As a theory is revised and more data gathered it becomes more robust with less shortcomings.

This is exactly what has happened to the theory of human induced climate change. For over 70 years after the theory was proposed various people worked on it. In the beginning there was allot of skepticism and allot of argument, most scientists thought the idea was rubbish. However as others gathered data, often to disprove his theory, the idea gained merit. The mounting evidence reached a critical mass in about 1980 and the was serious amounts of work started to happen in the climate change arena.  In 1985 a joint UNEP/WMO/ICSU Conference on the "Assessment of the Role of Carbon Dioxide and Other Greenhouse Gases in Climate Variations and Associated Impacts" assessed the role of carbon dioxide and aerosols in the atmosphere, and concluded that greenhouse gases "are expected" to cause significant warming in the next century and that some warming is inevitable. The worries first caught wide public attention in the summer of 1988, the hottest on record till then (Most since then have been hotter) when James E. Hansen made one of the first testimonies in front of the US Congress that human-caused warming had already measurably affected global climate. Both the UNEP and WMO had followed up on the 1985 Conference with additional meetings. In 1988 the WMO established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change with the support of the UNEP. The IPCC continues its work through the present day, and has issued a series of Assessment Reports and supplemental reports that describe the state of scientific understanding at the time each report is prepared. The earliest report was issued in 1990.

Scientists from many and various fields have studied climate change and in the last 10 year there has not a single published peer reviewed paper that has any evidence that climate change is not happening. Even scientists who are deniers, once given the data and told to analyse it, tend to give in to the weight of evidence. The rest of this paragraph is from this piece in the New York Times. "Prof. Richard Muller of Berkeley, a physicist who has gotten into the climate skeptic game, has been leading the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project, an effort partially financed by none other than the Koch foundation. And climate deniers — who claim that researchers at NASA and other groups analyzing climate trends have massaged and distorted the data — had been hoping that the Berkeley project would conclude that global warming is a myth. His climate-skeptic credentials are pretty strong: he has denounced both Al Gore and Tom Friedman as “exaggerators,” and he has participated in a number of attacks on climate research, including the witch hunt over innocuous e-mails from British climate researchers. Not surprisingly, then, climate deniers had high hopes that his new project would support their case. Instead, however, Professor Muller reported that his group’s preliminary results find a global warming trend “very similar to that reported by other groups.”"

People try to say that there is no consensus amongst scientists however this is not true. There is some argument about minor details of the climate models such as the degree to which aerosols will help mitigate the affects of climate change. There is no argument as to weather climate change is happening or who caused it! to drive home the point is a well written concise statement by the National Research Council. "Although the scientific process is always open to new ideas and results, the fundamental causes and consequences of climate change have been established by many years of scientific research, are supported by many different lines of evidence, and have stood firm in the face of careful examination, repeated testing, and the rigorous evaluation of alternative theories and explanation."

We is Australia have people that provide expert advice as well. The Australian Climate Change Commission was set up by the federal government to synthesize the latest science and provide the best advice that scientist have to offer with regards to climate change. Here is a link to the Key messages from the Australian Climate Commission.  Climate change is real and we are at a critical juncture and we need to make moves to reduce our Carbon Dioxide output. The Climate is not a belief system it doesn't care weather we believe it is behaving differently. The climate is not a democratic system you cannot vote for it to stay the same. What affects it is physical factors and the major one at the moment is the amount of CO₂ we pump out into the Atmosphere. If Australia and the rest of the world want to avoid the worst effects of climate change then we need to curb our CO₂ output.

CO2 from car

One good calculator of your personal CO₂ is http://www.reversetheeffect.com.au/ but I have used many different ones to get a good idea of my personal CO₂ output.

Use the Green car guide: http://www.greenvehicleguide.gov.au/ to figure out your vehicle and transports output.

The green car guide calculate about 3.9  tons of CO₂ annually for the both of us. I then used 1degree: http://www.1degree.com.au/ to calculate other CO2 output Household 2.18 tonnes of CO₂ and Flights 1.13 tonnes of CO₂

So that gives 4 + 2.2 + 1.2 for a grand total of 7.4 tonnes of CO₂ for the both of us or about 3.7 tonnes each. Given that each person should be aiming for under 3 tonnes of CO₂ per year Min and I are about 1.4 (0.7 each) tonnes away from our goal output.

I'll try and write a piece soon about how to reduce our output. In the meantime check out the one degree website for your own calculations along with great ways you can reduce your personal CO₂ output.

Cyclone Yasi

There was a very tense mood in Townsville before cyclone Yasi. There was a quiet expectancy, a nervousness that you couldn't quite put your finger on. Everyone actually took it quite seriously, which was good considering the size and power of the storm. Nearly everyone was busy clearing yards tying down bits and pieces (like sheds and roofs) in the yard and packing emergency kits and vital documents. Lots of people where out taking photographs of houses yards favourite places etc so that there were before and after photo's.

Min and I were busy with all of these things as well. We had the added drama of a 80 year old house and no rooms that were small and well protected. Our nervous energy before the storm fuels and whirlwind of packing and moving, of which that house had never seen the like, either before or since. It was decided that the Dinning room would be our last retreat. It is definitely the safest room as it is completely internal and surrounded on all sides by other rooms.

The lounge room was emptied completely except for my canoe which came in from outside. All clothes and nick-nacks were packed into cupboards and then the cupboards were ratchet strapped down. Emergency clothes, documents and other essential items (such as the computer backup) were packed into a Nally bin each. This was for grabbing on the way out if we needed to run at any stage  All pictures were taken off the walls and packed under the bed in the spare room. The outdoor furniture was turned over and ratchet strapped down to the deck. The table and chairs from the dinning room were moved into the spare room and the lounge chairs were moved into the dinning area. the mattress from our bed was also moved into the dinning area as a last ditch protection method. The Idea being that the lounge chairs would be our walls and the mattress our roof if the roof of the house went.

Once everything was racked, packed and stacked there was not much to do but wait, wander around and look for things to put away or strap down. One problem that we had was the Car. There was nowhere to put it so it was decided that it would be left out on the street.

The other thing that could be done was religiously follow the cyclone tracking map and warnings from the BOM. The Map above shows how big the storm was but it also shows the direct hit on Tully. 24hrs before this the tracking map showed a direct hit somewhere just south of Ingham, which needless to say would have been much more devastating for us here in Townsville.

I saved 3 of the tracking maps that the BOM put out on the day before TC Yasi. These maps become really important to you when something like Yasi is heading towards you.

This was the final map I was able to get. it was 6pm the night that Yasi was about to hit and as you can see from the map it was already quite windy. We lost the Power a couple of hours after this 6pm map.

With our house prepared and maps looked at all that was left was to ride out the storm. Min and I decided that the Puppies should come inside in the cement area beside the Kitchen/dinning area where we were. while outside the dogs would be quite stressed but once they came inside they were as calm as anything not worried at all. Their bed food and water were all inside. The water actually presented a problem due to Bear drinking the water all the time and having to pee. Bear had to pee but wouldn't go outside without me, so I would have to run out into the yard squat down and shelter from the wind as best I could then call to Bear to get him to come outside. No the most fun I've had but at least we only experienced the equivalent to a category 2 cyclone.

Other than Bear's little expeditions the night was reasonably uneventful. I was tweeting until the power went out so that people knew how we were. We were expecting the power to go we just didn't know when it would happen. It happened just after 10pm, so we just shut down the mobile phones to conserve power and gave up on reading. After that the noise was more noticeable and the house would occasionally hum with vibrations from the wind. I think that Min's place though is sheltered from the worst of it by Castle Hill. The worst thing about the cyclone was the heat. Stuck in a closed up house with no fans was a problem. The Next night was without power as well and I had to leave the front and back doors open and lay in the breeze way between them to get to sleep. It's the things your not ready for that get you the most I suppose.

The next day was also a bit of a surprise as it was still really windy. Min and I didn't start the clean up till a couple of days after due to the wind. On the note of the clean up I would like to say that Ergon Energy did a great job in restoring power. The Townsville City Council during it's cleanup produced 10 years worth of Mulch in just over a month.About 200 trucks an hour were dumping green waste at Lou Lister park, producing over 120 cubic meters of mulch an hour for 3 weeks. Townsville's streets and back yards started to look bare with an estimated 63,000 trees destroyed or damaged by Cyclone Yasi.

All in all we were lucky and came through relatively unscathed. Our sympathy and best wishes are with the people of Tully and Cardwell who were the hardest hit and are still trying to rebuild.

Historical Note

It's always worth noting where names came from, it's not always high on the priority list but if you come across an interesting tit bit it is usually worth noting.

We currently live on Plant st in West End. How would a street get a name like plant.

Well I just came across a report titled "Highways and Byways" which states as follows.

Plant St, West End. The Street was originally two streets known respectively as Hodel and Newman Streets. They were combined to form one street in 1919, which was named after Lieutenant Colonel Plant, the commanding officer of the 31^st Infantry Battalion, First A.I.F.

A fact that one day may be worth knowing!

Another Video Worth Watching: Sir David Attenborough

I love David Attenborough. I grew up watching his documentaries and no other narrator quite says "Nature Documentary" like Sir David Attenborough. He gave a speech to the Royal Society for the encouragement of Arts, Manufactures and Commerce, it is well worth a listen.

Wall Clocks

I've been thinking that Min and I should get a wall clock to replace the clock we have. The clock we have is nice and all buuutttt... The problem as I see it though is that all wall clocks are essentially the same, a round dial with hands pointing out the time. the only real difference is in the trimmings. In Short, They're boring!

So I searched the interwebulons for something different. I found a few that quite appealed to me, and some that were at least different.

The above clock would have to be my favorite. Very Steam Punk just need a few of the cogs to be made of brass. While it's still round it reverses the movement in most clocks with the face moving around the hand.

This one rotates and the ball tells you the time. At 12 the ball goes through the hole in the middle and comes out the bottom to start the cycle again. Very Ingenious!

Now we have what would have to be my second favorite. Each of the little white sticks rotate. Each group will line up every 12 hours to form a word that correspond to the time. In the picture above the time would either be 4am or pm and you can see a messy 'three' and 'five' above and below the current time. Unfortunately this is a One off art project, so it's a little hard to get a hold of. Considering it has 180 different rotating pieces each with it's own movement it's also hard to make yourself.

Penultimately it a wall clock that is probably not great at being a display piece but might be handy, say, in the kitchen somewhere.

Finally we have the Vertick. This would be a nice display and tells you the time accurately. I do wonder what happens at 12:59 though.